- While Open Interest is still entering the market at a slow pace, accumulation has been ongoing for the last 3 weeks. With weeks of accumulated leverage, a slight deleveraging correction (up to 10%) may be in place in the short-term. Given the ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ phenomenon in the space, this correction might coincide with the launch of Bitcoin futures ETF.
2. Selling pressure is still there, and getting stronger:
· Average p/l of short-term (30d) BTC holders is at +17%.
· Long-term (1y) holders’ p/l is at +46%.
→ possible short-term profit taking.
3. BUT reserves on exchanges remain low, as investors prefer to hodl in anticipation of a bull rally. Funding rate is on the rise, signalling a bullish consensus amongst derivative traders.
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New money entering through ETF + limited supply = long-term moon.
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